> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.dublininquirer.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Private rentals are what the city needs least of in future, shows analysis for government - URL: https://www.dublininquirer.com/private-rentals-are-what-the-city-needs-least-of-in-future-shows-analysis-for-government/ - Published: 2026-11-13T00:50:06.000Z - Updated: 2026-11-13T00:50:06.000Z - Description: "Housing supply alone will not solve the challenge. The key issue is delivering the correct tenure mix," said a recent presentation to councillors. - Author: Lois Kapila - Tags: Housing, City Desk Just 10 percent of homes from now until 2040 should be private-rentals to meet future needs in Dublin city, according to [an analysis](https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/28885525-housing-needs-demand-assessment-hnda-presented-by-forvis-mazars/?ref=dublininquirer.com) carried out for Dublin City Council. By contrast, 39 percent of homes should be for owner-occupiers buying from the market, 31 percent of homes should be cost-rental or affordable purchase, and 21 percent should be social homes, it has found. The Housing Need and Demand Assessment (HNDA) brings together demographic and market data to estimate housing needs up to 2040, said Colum Kelly, a consultant at Forvis Mazars, to members of the council's housing committee on Monday. Overall, the tool – created by the Department of Housing – estimates that 104,247 homes are needed in the city in that period, or between 5,500 and 8,700 a year, he said, with fluctuation over time due to pent-up demand. "The number is higher in the first 10 years." "Housing supply alone will not solve the challenge. The key issue is delivering the correct tenure mix," said a header on one of his slides. "Affordability is a key challenge," said Kelly. House prices and rents have risen, incomes not so much. At the meeting, councillors and other committee members dug down into what the tool assumes about Dubliners' needs and desires, starting to tease out how this estimate of future need tallies with what is being delivered right now in the city. [Unlike last time around](https://www.dublininquirer.com/just-4-of-private-homes-granted-planning-permission-in-dublin-city-last-year-were-three-beds-is-that-enough/), this HNDA analysis also considers how need in different council areas may differ and what size homes are needed in the years ahead. Figures highlighted the need to grapple with and resolve how to deliver larger homes in the city and roll back the developer-friendly fixation on studios and one-beds of recent years. Fianna Fáil Councillor Deirdre Heney asked how the analysis would actually be used. It feeds into the council's next city development plan, and its housing delivery action plan, which is just being finalised, said Ruth Dowling, the council's executive manager for housing delivery. A council spokesperson said on Thursday that the analysis so far is draft, and work is still ongoing. Councillors at the meeting sought a workshop, to drill further into the figures. ## Looking ahead The HNDA works like this, said Kelly at the meeting. Based on income of course, but also other parameters, it looks at whether households would be able to pay to buy a home and if so classes them as potential buyers from the private market. If they can't buy, the tool assesses whether such households could cover rent within 35 percent of their income. If so, they're into the private-rental market. Meanwhile, if households are within the income thresholds to be eligible for social homes, they're put in that bracket of need. Those who are above the social housing threshold, but who can't afford rent within 35 percent of their income, are classed as "affordability assisted" – so in need of a cost-rental home, or an affordable-purchase home. Working with the council, Forvis Mazars also estimated future need in terms of bedroom size, said Kelly. They split that need up too, by tenure. It shows a smaller number of one-beds and studios, and more two-beds, three-beds and four-beds, than central government policy, developers, and the Land Development Agency have been pushing for. "The key message here is that for each one of those individual categories, there's probably a need to consider what the bedroom splits are," said Kelly. It's more fine-grained than a blended breakdown, across all these cohorts. As is the estimated tenure mix needed in different council areas. ## What's this based on? As committee members sought to get to grips with the tables and graphs, several said they thought that figures for future demand, between 5,500 and 8,700 each year, seemed low. "There does seem to be a serious methodological issue as it treats the city as if it is a single \[self-contained\] market," said Mike Allen, of Focus Ireland. Aside from households on the social housing lists, most households would move across boundaries depending on prices, what gets built where, and how public transport grows, he said. "Does it somehow take into account what Fingal is saying? What South County Dublin is saying, and so on?" he said. To that, Dowling said that the housing teams at the four Dublin authorities do meet regularly, and would share their HNDAs. The analyses all go to the Department of Housing, too, to consider that bigger picture, she said. Allen also questioned the explicit assumption that if people have money to buy, they will buy. "The city is kind of unique in the country as a housing system as there are lots of people on high incomes who are here for a short period so unlikely to buy and are in the private rental market." He asked if that was a minor or major factor, in how the figures pan out. Alan Robinson, CEO of the Docklands Business Forum, said that he would question the figure for "hidden demand", which the tool spat out at 16,610 households. "That seems extraordinarily low." In the Docklands, developers have built office space for up to 80,000 people, he said, but only homes for about 20,000 people. How many in that gap live in surrounding counties with long commutes, but want to live closer to where they work? he asked. Meanwhile, the estimated need for Traveller housing between now and 2040 was 111 to 147\. "That's a very, very low number," said Sinn Féin Councillor Daithí Doolan. "And in one sense it's really achievable, but of all the statistics we've been given today that's the low-hanging fruit, numerically." Still, though, the council fails to meet that need, he said. How also are changes in government policy taken into account, said Doolan. After all, income thresholds are manmade. Tweak them and people fall into different categories of need. Independents 4 Change Councillor Pat Dunne raised too the fate of households who earn too much to qualify for a social home, but too little to be able to cover cost-rental rents if they're spending just 35 percent of their income on those. "There's a whole raft of people basically forgotten about," he said. [Government scheme to help medium-income renters leaves some to fall through gap - Dublin InquirerThere’s a cohort earning too much for social housing, but too little to qualify for the Land Development Agency’s new cost-rental “affordable” housing schemes.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/9f/78/9f782dda-9dc9-44d1-b817-fe80588bdc76/content/images/icon/Favicon-2-ec612573-a368-475c-bf3e-996363ec4717.jpg)Dublin InQuirerLois Kapila![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/9f/78/9f782dda-9dc9-44d1-b817-fe80588bdc76/content/images/thumbnail/hansfield-exterior-and-common-area-14-scaled-e1705455446857-76ec1205-3d6f-4b55-8747-1999857a320e.jpg)](https://www.dublininquirer.com/government-scheme-to-help-medium-income-renters-leaves-some-to-fall-through-gap/) At a [council meeting in July,](https://www.dublininquirer.com/dublin-city-council-is-grappling-with-how-to-meet-new-government-target-for-delivering-social-and-affordable-homes/) Jim Baneham of the Housing Agency told councillors that the Department of Housing had been looking for more funding to increase subventions for cost-rental homes and lower rents, to address this gap. But, "the Department of Public Expenditure and Reform, I know they have a longer name now, but effectively, the kind of Jack Chambers side of things are not keen to allow that to happen", Baneham said. ## From here to there Dublin City Council actually has a strong pipeline now of social and affordable homes, said Mick Mulhern, the council's head of housing, at the housing committee meeting on Monday. Council officials are finalising its next Housing Delivery Action Plan, which runs from 2027 to 2030, with a target of 10,158 social homes and 9,226 affordable homes within that period. That matches more or less with the estimated need in the HNDA And the council has sight of how they'll reach that. "There's a lot of clarity on that now", he said. Indeed, the action plan lists 9,381 social homes and they're working out where to find the 777 that they need to hit the target, said Dowling. "We're very close." Meanwhile, at 9,362, they've more affordable homes in the pipeline than targeted, she said. If that all goes to plan, the challenge over the coming years is going to be private delivery, said Mulhern. "There's going to be a gap on the private side, for sure." There aren't many easy sites left in the city, said Mulhern. Those being built out are at the higher-end of the private market, the most expensive, or are state-subsidised through schemes such as Croí Cónaithe. Dowling said there's a particular challenge in areas such as Ballymun and Darndale where the council wants to see more homeowners and a greater mix of tenures, but construction costs are higher than market values. The HNDA estimates that for the council's administrative North West Area – which takes in Ballymun and Finglas – 2,546 of the 8,365 homes out to 2040 should be for owner-occupiers buying on the private market. But the way that density requirements have been drafted – with a focus on high-rise apartments, which are expensive to build, rather than cheaper medium-density compact homes along the lines of traditional housing in Stoneybatter – is one element which makes that difficult to achieve. [In Ballymun, plans called for developers to build high-density private homes – but large swathes of land remain vacant - Dublin InquirerIt’s time to shift strategies, some say, and ramp up lower-density affordable-purchase housing there instead.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/9f/78/9f782dda-9dc9-44d1-b817-fe80588bdc76/content/images/icon/Favicon-2-a4d6a966-259d-41f3-80d1-5169ceaf7637.jpg)Dublin InQuirerLaoise Neylon![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/9f/78/9f782dda-9dc9-44d1-b817-fe80588bdc76/content/images/thumbnail/vacant-land-in-ballymun-2-scaled-e1727814266151-970a7081-90c3-40cc-9985-50a3323e8b13.jpg)](https://www.dublininquirer.com/in-ballymun-plans-called-for-developers-to-build-high-density-private-homes-but-large-swathes-of-land-remain-vacant/) Dowling says the data also throws light on the number of four-bed homes that are needed in the city. The council will have to talk to the Department of Housing about the costs of those, and how to fund them, she said. "There are real challenges that this is highlighting for us, and reinforcing," said Dowling, of the analysis.